Driving Sports

Each time the black death swept through Europe from the 14th to the 17th centuries, it left behind an unexpected dividend: rich people. That happened for the simple reason that when 1/3 of the people die, the other 2/3 inherit all their stuff. It's likely to work the same way in the auto industry this year.

The financial collapse and the gas price spike is a double-whammy that's going to take down GM and Chrysler - no one seriously doubts this, no matter how many billions of dollars the Feds donate to the executive bonus pool. Ford looks like it's going to stick around, primarily because Ford Motor Credit avoided the subprime mortgage mess that slaughtered GMAC.

By the end of 2010, if Ford is the last company of the Big 3 still standing, it will inherit the still-huge domestic auto market. Foreign manufacturers will also see gains, but the biggest share will go to Ford.

Another set of winners in the near-term will be used car dealers. A local dealer, speaking off the record, predicted a 25% failure rate in 2009 for new car dealerships. But the used market is a completely different animal. Used car centers are under no obligation to service warranties, maintain a stock of parts, or keep a manufacturer-specified amount of dead inventory on the lot. This gives them the freedom to buy only the inventory they can sell in the next month, and to buy it at the market price.

The result is, if you need a truck, the place to buy it is the used car lot. If your new-used vehicle is still under warranty, that's what the dealer's for - if he's still in business.